Wrong forecast by NiMet causes damage to Kwara farms
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency’s (NiMet) 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) for Kwara State has been widely criticized by farmers and advocacy groups for its inaccuracy, leading to significant agricultural losses and concerns about a looming food crisis.
Farmers in agrarian communities, particularly in the Asa local government area, relied on NiMet’s forecast, which projected rainfall from May 7 to November 18, providing approximately 195 days for cultivation.
However, the actual weather pattern deviated drastically, with rainfall ceasing abruptly in June, disappearing entirely in July, and only occurring in isolated instances in August. Consistent rains did not resume until September, resulting in a three-month drought during the peak growing season.
This unexpected drought destroyed thousands of hectares of farmland and crops such as beans, maize, pepper, tomato, watermelon, and cucumber, causing farmers to incur substantial losses on investments in land preparation, seedlings, and fertilizers.
For instance, AbdulRazaq Hazmat reported 100% destruction of his cucumber, watermelon, and beans crops, and 70% loss of maize on his 15-hectare farm. The pro-democracy and civic advocacy group Kwara Must Change (KMC) has labeled NiMet’s 2025 SCP as a “huge failure” with severe consequences for food security, rural livelihoods, and farmer confidence.
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KMC and affected farmers are demanding explanations from NiMet and calling for an independent review of its forecasting models and an urgent probe by both the National Assembly and the Kwara State House of Assembly.
They argue that NiMet’s claim of 85% forecast accuracy is misleading given the widespread crop failures. The group also advocates for immediate relief packages for affected farmers and the establishment of localized weather monitoring systems to improve forecast reliability and restore farmers’ trust.
Agricultural experts are questioning the adequacy of Nigeria’s climate forecasting system in handling the rapidly changing realities of climate variability, especially in rain-fed farming communities.
NiMet, while facing criticism for its agricultural forecasts, has also been working on improving its systems for other sectors, such as aviation, by introducing e-flight folders and aeronautical meteorology bulletins to enhance flight safety.
SOURCE: Nigerian Sketch
